The Road to Roland Garros: ATP Edition

For much of the last two decades, the clay season (check out our WTA predictions here) has delivered plenty of intrigue alongside some constants, namely that a certain Rafael Nadal was more or less bound to win everything in his path in the lead-up to Roland Garros.

Since 2005, 14 of the last 20 French Opens have been won by the Spaniard, with Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka and Carlos Alcaraz each securing one and Novak Djokovic bringing home the other three coveted “La Coupe des Mousquetaires.”

Out of the 14 years when Nadal won the French Open, Nadal won an astonishing 62 percent of all Masters 1000-level tournaments he entered leading up to the event. That's 21 Masters 1000 titles out of 34 total entries during an RG title year. A ridiculous conversion rate when building up to the most physically demanding Slam.

With that said, what can we glean from 2025’s first Masters 1000 on the dirt?

When healthy, Alcaraz is the player to beat. Since his arrival on the Grand Slam stage in late 2022, Alcaraz has proved to be a constant threat at majors on natural surfaces. Out of the four slams not on hard court since his first Slam tittle, Alcaraz has won three of those four slams (RG ’24, W ’23 and W’24) and made the semifinals at the other (RG ’23).

After finally winning his first match in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz battled through multiple three-set encounters to go all the way and hoist the trophy. Eventually blitzing past a fatigued Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6, 6-1, 6-0, Alcaraz dug deep a few times throughout the tournament, battling back against a younger opponent in Arthur Fils and close friend Alejandro Davidovic-Fokina in the quarterfinals and semifinals respectively. Although he admitted to some personal difficulties in the last month, Alcaraz seemed to find both himself and his best tennis in Monte Carlo, raising the Spanish flag once more over the prestigious country club. As many of the Masters 1000 level events shift to at least a week and a half schedule, the rare one-week Masters tournament feels like a breath of fresh air, with high market value match-ups from the first round all the way until the last. Looking to capture his third Madrid title in front of a home crowd and a first ever Rome title, watch for Alcaraz to gain a bunch of points on the world No. 1 until Jannik Sinner’s return from suspension at the latter tournament, his first since winning the Australian Open in January.

Speaking of the Italians, the deep roster of young compatriots will certainly try to make noise at the last 1000 level event before Roland Garros. The Italian Open, or the “Internazionali d'Italia” has not seen a men’s singles champion from Italy since Adriano Panatta in 1976, so expect the local heroes to try to break that long-standing streak. Will it be the in-form Musetti, fresh off a career best run to the Monte Carlo finals? Or perhaps Matteo Berrettini will make some waves as he seemingly works his way back to top-10 form. Even though it’ll be his first tournament back in three months, Sinner will likely be looking to make a splash as he seeks to get matches under his belt. TW Prediction: Sinner. Dark horse: Flavio Cobolli.

As for the Mutua Madrid Open, it sits (literally) above the other clay Masters 1000 events as the highest altitude for a Masters tournament or higher at 650 meters (2,100 feet), drastically changing court conditions to be more serve-friendly. The results are a little closer overall to that of a hard court, as balls are more liable to fly long and often require more topspin to bring them back down. Big servers with all-court game have feasted here in the past, with a strong Big Four dominance from the tournament’s inception until the early 2020’s. Alcaraz has won two of the last three editions of the tournament, and will likely look to prove himself again in front of a home crowd. Watch for two-time champion Alexander Zverev to make a deep run as well. TW Prediction: Alcaraz. Dark horse: Joao Fonseca.

Aside from the big names, who else might be poised to have a breakout clay season? Are there any Americans who could maybe break their big title drought on clay? The last American man to win a big title on clay (Masters 1000 or above) was Andre Agassi, back in 2002… Of the Americans thoroughly percolating the the top 100, a few seem perhaps best positioned for a clay Cinderella story. The first would be Ben Shelton, who admittedly doesn’t have much to his clay resumé abroad, but he did capture a US clay court title in 2024. Shelton’s serve remains a threat on any surface, and when combined with his dynamic movement, in theory all the right ingredients are there to make a statement on the red dirt. And when it comes to movement, there is perhaps no better mover among American men today than that of Tommy Paul, whose elite footwork has propelled him to a constant top-20 presence since March 2023. Keep an eye out for Jenson Brooksby as well, fresh off a title run of his own in Houston earlier this year. The young American’s sneaky all-court game could in theory transition very well to clay, should he find a way to serve consistently and effectively. Likewise, if Taylor Fritz can back up his serve with a more patient all-court game, he too could make the elusive leap on the red dirt.

As things wrap up among the 1000-level and smaller events, sights will turn to Roland Garros, where Alcaraz will look to become the first player other than Nadal to defend a French Open since Gustavo Kuerten in 2001. The biggest threat to his title defense will likely be the most accomplished player of all time, a certain Novak Djokovic. For the sake of tennis we will hope that these two are on opposing halves of the draw because all finals contested by these two have proved to be absolutely mesmerizing encounters.

But is there any hope for a French Roland Garros champion, ending the over 40-year drought since Yannick Noah’s 1983 triumph? Indeed there are a few exciting candidates, ranging from beloved veterans to newer faces on tour. On the more seasoned side of things, this year’s French Open has been promised to be Richard Gasquet’s final event, so look out for that signature one-handed backhand to make a winning splash one last time. Elsewhere, 38-year-old Gael Monfils has been enjoying a late career Renaissance, earlier this year becoming the oldest ATP Tour champion since the tour's creation in 1990, and the oldest champion period since Ken Rosewall in 1977. Should “La Monf” be healthy and avoid Djokovic in his draw (0-20 lifetime), the stars seem potentially aligned for a deep run. Additionally, the young Frenchmen have been making plenty of exciting noise, two in particular: Arthur Fils and Giovanni Mpetshi-Perricard. Fils, one of the heaviest hitters on tour in terms of both pace and RPMs, has been making regular strides against the game’s best, taking eventual champion Alcaraz to three sets in Monte Carlo and also bowing out to eventual champion Jakub Mensik in Miami. Should he find a good level and a good draw, look for Fils to make a breakout Slam run. Mpetshi-Perricard on the other hand has less pressure on his gigantic shoulders, having already made a breakout Slam run at last year’s Wimbledon. Although his incredible serve is undeniably ideally suited for grass, Mpetshi-Perricard has confessed that his favorite surface is indeed clay. Should he stay unseeded, be prepared for a potential first-round upset for whoever is unlucky enough to draw him as a seed.

But at the end of the day the beauty of tennis lies in its ambiguities, the upsets and the ever slimmer margins of today’s game. What makes tennis so exciting is that each day, match and point is an opportunity to start anew and make a novel statement. Whether or not one can back it up, remains to be seen, spectated, and savored by all. TW Prediction: Novak Djokovic. Dark horse: Joao Fonseca.