The Path to the French Open: WTA Edition
As the women's tour floats around from one kind of clay to the next, Tennis Warehouse looks ahead at some of the season's biggest narratives on the red dirt.
The Road to Roland Garros looks a little different on the WTA compared to the ATP (Check out our ATP predictions here), with only two Masters 1000s on the surface before the French Open. Last year en route to her fourth French Open title in the last five years, Iga Swiatek won both lead-up tournaments, accomplishing a rare hat trick at the three biggest clay events of the year. The last player to pull off such a feat? A certain Serena Williams.
The WTA clay swing offers a variety of conditions across the board, making the lead-in to the French quite interesting in terms of how each tournament plays from one location to the next. The swing really kicks off with a tournament on Har-Tru green clay in Charleston, South Carolina, making it the biggest clay court tournament for the WTA stateside. Har-Tru typically plays a little faster and firmer than red clay, making the transition from hard courts perhaps feel a little less demanding initially.
From there the tour swings over to red clay, albeit indoors, over at the Stuttgart WTA 500, one of the strongest events entry-wise at the 500 level. Indoor clay also is a bit of a difference compared to outdoor red dirt, as the more idealized conditions make the ball speed faster, neutralizing some of the slower characteristics that clay is inherently known for. After the Stuttgart Open, Tennis Warehouse looks ahead to Madrid and Rome before the French Open, taking a closer look at the biggest storylines for 2025.
All eyes on Iga. After bowing out to her nemesis and eventual titlist Jelena Ostapenko (0-6 lifetime) in Stuttgart, Iga Swiatek will look to find some form and perhaps pick up a title, in what would be her first since winning the French Open last June. Swiatek so far has looked a little lost this year, with a mixed bag of results across the initial hard court swing. She seems to potentially have a match-up problem with not only Ostapenko, but also with the tour’s brightest young star, Mirra Andreeva, having dropped two matches to her already this year. But clay is without a doubt Swiatek’s surface to gain some revenge and confidence on, so look for her to make some statement wins in both Madrid and Rome.
Madrid sits at the highest elevation for a WTA-1000 level and above tournament, making the conditions play a little more serve-friendly, and a little less slow. The Madrid Open has never seen a Spanish female champion, but with Paula Badosa’s injury withdrawal, chances of that ending this year are slim. Aryna Sabalenka will look to get back in the winner’s circle after splitting the previous two editions of the final here with Swiatek. The Belarusian still looms as the world’s highest ranked player, and her devastating offensive game works on any surface, not just on the the hard courts she won her three slams on. Last year’s final saw perhaps the best match yet between Sabalenka and Swiatek, with both players saving championship points en route to a dramatic 9-7 finish in the third set tiebreaker with Swiatek eventually sealing the deal. As the past two finals have been been contested between these two, could we be in for a third? TW prediction: Sabalenka. Dark horse: Daria Kasatkina.
After Madrid wraps up, the calendar will make its way across a few smaller tournaments but primarily will revolve around Rome, where a female singles champion from Italy has not been crowned since Raffaella Reggi in 1985, forty years ago. Look for Jasmine Paolini to try to break this streak and find some form after a disappointing start to 2025. As the conditions will be the most similar to the French Open, Rome will be a great litmus test as well for other prominent WTA stars, such as Coco Gauff, recent slam champ Madison Keys, and the crafty veteran Karolina Muchova. Similarly, it could be a great opportunity for former Roland Garros champions Barbora Krejcikova and Jelena Ostapenko to rack up some points heading into the French. TW prediction: Mirra Andreeva. Dark horse: Naomi Osaka.
And then everything will be up for grabs as the two-week second Grand Slam of the season gets underway. Will Madison Keys be able to adjust her late career Renaissance onto clay? Can Qinwen Zheng carry over her Olympic gold form to the Grand Slam at the same venue? Can Mirra Andreeva take the leap she’s been gearing up towards for over a year? Many questions loom, as three-time defending champion Swiatek bids to become the first player since Suzanne Lenglen to win four French Opens in a row, now over a hundred years ago.
Like the Rome Open, the French Open hasn’t seen a home heroine French champion since Mary Pierce in 2000. Though she continues to battle a nagging back injury, Caroline Garcia is still likely the best hope for the French faithful. Although her compatriots Varvara Gracheva, Diane Parry, and Clara Burel all have some decent Grand Slam experience, with all three making it to at least the third round of the French last year. But the name to beat will almost certainly be Swiatek, who is starting to establish a Nadal-like dominance at the French, fitting, as she herself grew up a huge Nadal fan. TW Prediction: Swiatek. Dark horse: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
